受疫情影响,越南经济波动幅度较大。越南当局为有效控制疫情,采取了多项防疫措施,其中包括限制、封锁和隔离,导致大量企业生产运营中断,民众失业率激增,当季经济增长速度呈现“断崖式”下跌。世界各知名制造企业纷纷叫苦不迭,后悔从中国撤出。就在不久前,在美版知乎Quora上,越南网友提问道:越南会趁着疫情和中美贸易战异军突起成为世界工厂吗?这个问题成为各国网友围观的热点,他们纷纷持否定意见,我们看看他们的观点。

My view is that Vietnam can replace a small part of very low-end industries, but it is absolutely impossible to completely replace China.

我的观点是,越南可以取代一小部分,而且是非常低端的行业,但完全取代中国是绝对不可能的。

Many products in life began to be made in Vietnam. For example, we wear Nike sneakers and we drink G7 instant coffee. You may find that more and more products produced in Vietnam enter our lives.

许多生活中的产品开始由越南制造。例如,我们穿的耐克运动鞋,我们喝的G7速溶咖啡,你可能会发现越来越多在越南生产的产品进入我们的生活。

This makes many foreign trade friends in China feel scared and many overseas customers feel happy. They believe that with the gradual loss of China's demographic dividend and the rapid rise of costs, the cost advantage of China's manufacturing industry will decline again and again.

这让中国许多做外贸的朋友感到恐惧,也让许多海外客户感到高兴。他们认为,随着中国人口红利的逐渐丧失和成本的快速上升,中国制造业的成本优势会一次又一次地下降。

The manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia has begun to flow into the consumer markets all over the world, and China's manufacturing industry will be gradually replaced and marginalized. If laymen say so, it's understandable because they don't know the inside story. However, many foreign traders also hold a pessimistic attitude. I feel confused and puzzled. Are they exaggerating the negative atmosphere about China?

东南亚制造业已经开始涌入世界各地的消费市场,中国制造业将逐渐被取代和边缘化。如果外行这么说,这是可以理解的,因为他们不知道内幕。然而,许多外国贸易商也持悲观态度,我就感到困惑和不解了,他们在渲染关于中国的负面气氛吗?

01 where does Vietnam's confidence come from? I think there are several factors worth considering. First, the region borders Yunnan and Guangxi in China, which is conducive to the transfer of China's manufacturing industry. Not only do Vietnamese think so, but many European and American entrepreneurs also have such calculations. Secondly, for the political purpose of suppressing "made in China", European and American countries will inevitably curb China's production capacity and transfer it to a certain extent. Therefore, Vietnam, India, Cambodia and Bangladesh around China have become priority options.

01越南的信心从哪来?我认为有几个因素值得考虑。首先,该地区与中国的云南和广西接壤,这有利于中国制造业的转移。不仅越南人这样认为,许多欧洲和美国企业家也有这样的算计。其次,出于压制“中国制造”的政治目的,欧美国家不可避免地会遏制中国的生产能力,并进行一定程度的转移。因此,围绕中国的越南、印度、柬埔寨孟加拉国成为优先考虑的选项。

Third, Vietnam has released a large number of rural labor forces, and the demographic dividend has brought cost advantages. According to Vietnam online, the average monthly salary in Vietnam today is about $150, much lower than that in China today and perhaps the same as that in China in the 1990s. Fourth, it has undertaken a large amount of manufacturing capacity transferred from China, and many European, American, Japanese and Korean companies have begun to deploy in Vietnam. For example, Nike has gradually transferred orders from Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu to Vietnam. Now Vietnam has produced more Nike shoes than Chinese mainland.

第三,越南释放了大量农村劳动力,人口红利带来了成本优势。根据越南在线(Vietnam Online)的数据,如今越南的平均月薪约为150美元,远低于今天的中国,或许与20世纪90年代的中国持平。第四,它承担了大量从中国转移来的制造能力,许多欧洲、美国、日本和韩国公司已经开始在越南部署。例如,耐克过去已逐渐将广东、福建、浙江和江苏的订单转移到越南,如今,越南生产的耐克鞋数量已超过中国大陆。

Fifth, Western companies led by the United States directly invest and build factories in Vietnam, which are managed and operated by the American team, employ Vietnamese workers, adopt western advanced management concepts, and create profits in combination with Vietnam's local low-cost and preferential policies. In the view of the Vietnamese government, this is not only the success of attracting investment, but also the performance of foreign capital's emphasis on long-term development in Vietnam.

第五,以美国为首的西方公司直接在越南投资建厂,由美国团队管理和运营,并雇佣越南工人,采用西方先进的管理理念,结合越南当地的低成本和优惠政策,创造利润。在越南政府看来,这是成功吸引投资,也是外国资本重视在越南长期发展的表现。

Sixth, Vietnam's GDP growth over the past decade has been maintained at about 6% – 7%. The economic data are very eye-catching. It is the only country in the world that can maintain rapid growth (the other is China). The younger population structure makes the Vietnamese people full of confidence and can support Vietnam to maintain long-term rapid growth.

第六,越南过去十年的GDP增长一直保持在6%-7%左右,经济数据非常引人注目,是世界上唯二能够保持快速增长的国家(另一个是中国)。较年轻的人口结构使越南人民充满信心,能够支撑越南保持长期的快速增长。

For some time, Vietnam became a blessing in the eyes of international producers. The Vietnamese government has made a great commitment to a low tax environment and a good labor market.

有一段时间,越南成了国际生产商眼中的福地。低劳动力成本和低税收,以及良好的商业环境,政府承诺给投资者很大的信心,让他们开始考虑投资越南市场。

However, it is regrettable that Vietnam is simply unable to undertake China's manufacturing industry. There are many problems that are difficult to solve in the short term, such as economies of scale, industrial chain, technology accumulation, market depth and so on.

然而,令人遗憾的是,越南根本没有能力承接中国的制造业。有许多问题在短期内难以解决,如规模经济问题、产业链问题、技术积累问题、市场深度问题等。

The transfer path of manufacturing industry is the result of globalization and industrial division of labor. From an economic perspective, comparative advantage has played a role. After the Second World War, the manufacturing industry in the United States and Western Europe was unprecedentedly strong. However, due to cost factors, European and American countries need cheaper production capacity. They need to harvest the markets of developing countries and transfer low-end manufacturing industries with low profits and high pollution to development.

制造业的转移路径是全球化和产业分工的结果。从经济角度衡量,比较优势发挥了一定作用。第二次世界大战后,美国和西欧的制造业空前强大。然而,由于成本因素,欧洲和美洲国家需要更廉价的生产能力,他们需要收割发展中国家的市场,并将低利润、高污染的低端制造业转移到发展中。

Among them, it has experienced three stages. In the first stage, Japan took over the manufacturing industry of the United States and Western Europe; In the second stage, the four Asian dragons took over Japan's manufacturing industry; In the third stage, China took over the manufacturing industry of the four Asian dragons.

其中,它经历了三个阶段。在第一阶段,日本接管了美国和西欧的制造业;在第二阶段,亚洲四小龙接管了日本的制造业;在第三阶段,中国接管了亚洲四小龙的制造业。

Today, China is far stronger than Japan and the four Asian dragons. We can't find the next target in terms of population, national strength, capital, scale, fine division of labor, market depth, technology accumulation, industrial chain and so on. Let me ask, when Wal Mart needs to urgently order 600000 pairs of jeans and deliver them within two weeks, who else in the world can do this except China. Today, no one can replace China's manufacturing strength.

今天,中国远远强于日本和亚洲四小龙。无论是从人口、国力、资金、规模还是精细分工、市场深度、技术积累、产业链等方面,都找不到下一个目标地。让我问一下,当沃尔玛需要紧急订购60万条牛仔裤,需要在两周内交货时,除了中国,世界上还有谁能做到这一点,今天,没有人能取代中国的制造业实力。

On the whole, the world is now highly dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Although Vietnam's business environment has been greatly improved in recent years, its infrastructure is weak and its transportation and logistics are backward. It can't even be compared with China's Yunnan Guizhou Province, let alone the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. At least in the short term, Vietnam is not qualified. More than 490 of the world's top 500 enterprises have branches in China.

从整体来看,世界现在高度依赖中国制造业。尽管越南的商业环境近年来有了很大改善,但其基础设施薄弱,交通和物流落后,甚至连中国的云贵省都无法相比,更不要说长江三角洲和珠江三角洲地区。二者竞争至少在短期内,越南没有资格,世界500强企业中有490多家在中国设有分支机构。

The disadvantage of the company's ambition to build factories in Vietnam and China is to reduce the cost of building factories in Vietnam and China. But after I went there, I found that it couldn't drive at all. Not to mention that transportation and infrastructure cannot be upgraded temporarily, and the defects of global industrial chain division of labor are still fully exposed in Vietnam.

越南产业链的缺点是,日本公司雄心勃勃地在越南建厂,希望将中国、日本和韩国的部分产能转移到越南,控制和降低成本,赢得更好的市场份额。但在我去那里之后,我发现它完全开不下去。更不用说交通和基础设施暂时无法升级,全球产业链分工的缺陷在越南依然充分暴露。

After all, China has accumulated so many years. Since the 1990s, it has become the factory of the world. This is the struggle in the past 30 years. The industrial chain layout is extensive and detailed, and almost all raw materials, accessories and related outsourcing factories are located in China.

毕竟,中国已经积累了这么多年。自20世纪90年代以来,它已成为世界工厂。这是近30年来的奋斗。产业链布局广泛细致,几乎所有的原材料、配件和相关的外包工厂都位于中国。

For example, scancom, an American furniture factory I worked with, has set up a factory in Vietnam, which is directly invested and managed by the United States. On the surface, Vietnam's wood quality is very good and the wages of workers are relatively low. The United States believes that it will use modern American management to improve efficiency and maximize profits.

例如,我合作过的美国家具厂Scancom在越南设立了一家工厂,由美国直接投资和管理,从表面上看,越南的木材质量很好,工人的工资相对较低。美国相信,它将利用现代美国管理来提高效率,实现利润最大化。

But the reality is that the hardware needed for furniture must be imported from Guangdong, China; Small hardware such as screws and nails need to be imported from Zhejiang, China; Although painting and electroplating can be carried out in Vietnam, one factory is 500 kilometers away from the north and another factory is 600 kilometers away from the south. The cheapest option for cartons, color cards, manuals and labels is still to place orders in Chinese factories and then import them into Vietnam.

但现实是,家具所需的硬件必须从中国广东进口;螺钉和钉子等小型五金件需要从中国浙江进口;虽然越南可以进行喷漆和电镀,但一家工厂在北部500公里外,另一家工厂在南部600公里外。纸箱、色卡、手册和标签,最便宜的选择仍然是在中国的工厂下订单,然后进口到越南。

Therefore, of the more than 90 related accessories involved in a set of furniture, less than 30% can be used for production and processing in Vietnam, and the remaining 70% must be purchased from China and other Asian countries. China is a core supplier that can not be bypassed.

因此,一套家具所涉及的90多个相关配件中,只有不到30%可用于越南的生产和加工,其余70%必须从中国和其他亚洲国家购买,中国是不可绕过的核心供应商。

Due to the limitations of land area, population scale and industrial development, a small country is doomed to be unable to plan the whole industrial chain. Even in Europe, where German manufacturing is so strong, it can only choose a few categories and focus on high-end manufacturing. Most of the supply chain is distributed around the world, and Germany cannot develop the whole industrial chain, but its advantage lies in the close ties within the EU, which enables Germany to purchase parts and some processing links in other European countries.

由于土地面积、人口规模和工业发展的限制,一个小国注定无法规划整个产业链。即使在德国制造业如此强大的欧洲,它也只能选择几个类别,专注于高端制造业。供应链的大部分分布在全球,德国也无法开发整个产业链,但其优势在于欧盟内部的紧密联系,这使得德国可以在其他欧洲国家进行零部件采购和一些加工环节。

世界制造业份额

What about Vietnam? You can only regard yourself as a link in the industrial chain, closely combine with neighboring China and other Asian countries, and jointly complete the fine division of labor. Maybe you can occupy a place in the global market.

越南呢?你只能把自己当作产业链上的一环,与周边中国和其他亚洲国家紧密结合,共同完成精细分工,或许你可以在全球市场上占有一席之地。

The bottleneck of demographic dividend. On the surface, Vietnam is full of vitality. Young people account for almost 60% of the more than 90 million population, which can greatly provide the labor force needed for manufacturing. However, young people in Vietnam are generally not well educated and do not have enough economic strength to develop education and invest in scientific research.

人口红利的瓶颈。从表面上看,越南充满活力,在9000多万人口中,年轻人几乎占60%,这可以极大地提供制造业所需的劳动力。然而,越南的年轻人普遍没有受过良好的教育,没有足够的经济实力发展教育和投资科学研究。

Therefore, low labor cost does not mean high production and management efficiency, and it is difficult to find and cultivate talents. To fully open the situation, it will take a long time to enter the middle and high-end links of the supply chain. Vietnam's demographic dividend, the bottleneck period will come earlier, in other words, the upper limit will be lower. The reason is that the limitations of the industrial chain make the job choices of young people less diversified and rich. Vietnam itself is a small country. Its land area, market depth, industrial structure, infrastructure and transportation facilities will become the upper limit of the overall effect of the demographic dividend.

因此,劳动力成本低并不意味着生产和管理效率高,很难从中找到和培养人才。要全面打开局面,进入供应链的中高端环节需要很长时间。越南的人口红利,瓶颈期会来得更早,换句话说,上限会更低。原因是产业链的局限性使得年轻人的工作选择没有那么多样化和丰富。越南本身是一个小国,其土地面积、市场深度、产业结构、基础设施和交通设施都将成为人口红利全面效应的上限。

To sum up, under the premise of increasingly complex international division of labor, many low-end industrial chains are transferring to low-cost countries and regions. This is a general trend. It can not only actively reduce the cost burden of enterprises, but also passively promote the industrial upgrading of developed countries and regions.

综上所述,在国际分工日益复杂的前提下,许多低端产业链正在向低成本国家和地区转移。这是一个大趋势,它可以主动减轻企业的成本负担,也可以被动地促进发达国家和地区的产业升级。

I am glad to see some of China's backward production capacity transferred to Vietnam and other Asian countries to gain more advantages and cost freedom. Vietnam just wants to take over China's manufacturing industry and become the factory of the next world. I can say that this is wishful thinking. Even with other South and Southeast Asian countries, it can't do it!

我很高兴看到中国的一些落后生产能力转移到越南和其他亚洲国家,以获得更多的优势和成本自由。只是越南想接管中国的制造业,成为下一个世界的工厂,我可以说,这是痴心妄想,即使再加上其他南亚和东南亚国家,也无法做到!

Whenever I hear crazy economists predict that the "world factory" will rise in Vietnam and replace China, I will laugh.

每当我听到疯狂的经济学家预测“世界工厂”将在越南崛起并取代中国时,我都会大笑起来。

The United States believes that by replicating the TPP of "China miracle" in Vietnam and other Asian countries, they can outwit and stifle China's production. But the fact is far from reality. No country in the world can replace China!

美国认为,通过在越南和其他亚洲国家复制“中国奇迹”的TPP,他们可以智胜并扼杀中国的生产。可事实与现实相去甚远,世界上没有哪个国家能取代中国!

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